Welcome to the first installment of my 2023 Top 10 Starting Pitchers in Fantasy Baseball. It’s December so that means this will change at least 63 times (give or take) between now and Opening Day. I didn’t call this the “Way Too Early Rankings” because it’s never too early.
10. Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
If you follow me on Instagram or Youtube (@barreldelphia), you already know my feelings on Brandon Woodruff in 2023 Fantasy Baseball. I love him. Or at least, I like him a lot. He’s now turned in back-to-back Top 20 Starting Pitcher finishes the past two years, even with an injury last season that cost him a month on the IL. He had a 3.05 ERA with 190 Ks in just 153.1 innings in 2022, meaning he had an 11.2 K/9, which would rank him 4th in the league. He had a four game stretch in September where he went at least 6 innings each time, had at least 10 Ks in each one, and never allowed more than 2 runs in a start. If he stays healthy this year, he’ll easily be a top 15 SP, maybe top 12, and maybe top 10. Let’s hope its top 10 because that’s where I’ve got him.
9. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
What Alec Bohm said. This is the guy who led the MLB in IP (213.1) in 2021. He came in second in Cy Young voting that year pretty much solely based on the innings. He’s a workhorse. Last year was a funky year for him; he started his offseason program late due to all those innings in ’21 along with the delayed season, then came back on a pitch limit, then missed a start due to COVID in May and got hurt in August. The August IL stint was due to a forearm injury, but it was more precautionary than anything, because the Phillies knew they were going to need him in a playoff run (and they certainly did). All that being said, he only started 26 games and had 153 IP. The good news? His arm should be refreshed and ready to go for 2023. All that being said, he was still really good this past year. He had a 2.82 ERA and a 1.039 WHIP, with 9.6 K/9. He was dominant in the playoffs, until the World Series, where the fatigue from a long season probably caught up to him, despite the precautionary measures the Phillies took. Good thing fantasy is over before the World Series.
8. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Another Phillies pitcher; maybe it’s a Phillies bias? It might be, but I’ll explain why I have him here. Nola finished as SP13 in points leagues last year, with a 3.25 ERA, a 0.961 WHIP, 235 Ks and 200 IP. Now, Aaron Nola is a guy whose “expected” stats really make him look good. While his actual ERA was a 3.25, his xERA was a 2.71, 0.51 better. A quick breakdown for those who aren’t familiar with xERA, what it does is essentially take everything a pitchers done and tries to make a more accurate projection of what their ERA should be. It factors in defense, the weather and the ballparks you’re in. This stat, as well as all other expected statistics (anything that has an “x” in front of it, eg. xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, etc.) try to look at look at stats in a vacuum, taking out all those extraneous (bonus points for vocab word, probably didn’t use it right) factors. I swear that wasn’t a run-on sentence, it just looked long with the parentheses. SO, that being said, Nola also featured a better xwOBA than his actual wOBA, a better xSLG than his actual and a better xBA. It’s notable because a lot of times these expected statistics go the other way, and say a player is worse than they look. The fact that Nola is better in just about every category is saying something, and that something is that he’s unlucky. Now that I just told you all of that, I’ll say the one fatal flaw in this analysis: the same thing happened in 2021. He was flat out awful in ’21, but his expected stats showed he wasn’t that awful. Now this past year, he was good, but his expected stats show he could’ve been great. The question is: is he really getting unlucky and there continues to be room for improvement? Or does he just pitch for a Phillies team who is terrible defensively and his x stats will always be better than his real? That’s for you to decide, but for now I’m going to put him at number 8, which is probably his ceiling. Subject to change.
7. Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
That was a lot of talking about Aaron Nola, so let’s now discuss why Dylan Cease will regress. Sorry, Dylan. He came in second in the AL Cy Young in 2022, finishing as the SP4. His biggest problem is walks. Base on balls, folks. This past season was his 4th in the big’s and he’s already lead the AL in walks twice in his career, leading all of baseball in BB this year. He also had a real ERA of 2.20, but an xERA of 2.70, indicating he had some luck on his side this year. His xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching, again one of those stats that tries to look at things in a vacuum, but putting more emphasis on the pitcher with this one) was a 3.50, a whole 1.30 higher than his actual ERA. It can’t be ignored that he struck out 227 batters, after striking out 226 in 2021. The walks just concern me and so do the expected stats. These rankings will change soon enough and I’m not sure Cease will be featured in the top 10. Phenomenal mustache, but I’m not sure he can repeat what he did last year on the mound. Rank him wherever you want but I’m likely fading him.
6. Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
You know a guys a pretty good pitcher when his Baseball Savant profile shows all red for his percentile ranks. Corbin Burnes finished as the SP6 in fantasy last year and that’s where I’m putting him right now, as well. Burnes led the NL in strikeouts in 2022, with 243, to go along with his 2.94 ERA over 202 innings. I’m not really sure what happened to Burnes in August, because from the beginning of April-end of July, he had a 2.31 ERA, .187 BAA, and 11.6 K/9. August hit and his ERA during that month shot up to an uncharacteristic, and, quite frankly, terrible 4.81. I may still be holding a grudge against him from when I needed a good game out of him to help me win my week and he allowed 4 ER to the Pirates over 5.1 innings and got the loss. But let’s just chalk that up to “August,” because from September 8 to the end of the season, he returned to form a bit, with a 2.61 ERA and 2.43 FIP. So, I’m not sure what was going on with him in August, but if he would’ve put up even an “alright” month, he would’ve been fine. But also, let’s not overlook the fact that despite a horrid month, he still finished as the SP6. If he does it again this year, then we’ll have to be wary of it, but I’m expecting him to still be one of the best in the game in 2023.
5. Carlos Rodon, Free Agent
Carlos Rodon is one of the players I’m most excited to see in 2023. He’s currently a free agent, so where he signs will likely effect his fantasy performance, but he’s going to command a pretty penny. The Cubs, Mets, Rangers and Twins have all been linked to him and you can’t count out teams like the Phillies or the Dodgers. Rodon finished as the 7th best starting pitcher in fantasy last year, thanks to a 2.88 ERA and a whopping 237 strikeouts in 178 IP. Those strikeouts ranked him third in all of baseball and came out to a league leading 12 K/9. By now, you either think expected stats are really stupid or you tolerate them. I’m going to talk about them again. Rodon had a .254 xwOBA, which ranked 4th in all of baseball, which wasn’t too far off of his actual wOBA, which ranked 12th. His xERA and xBA were also in the top 5, and his xSLG was in the top 10. I say these expected stats are unforgiving, but Carlos Rodon is proving otherwise. Another statistic he led the league in was his FIP, with a 2.25. A new team will benefit him, and it should be a contender. I see Carlos Rodon continuing to do what he did, and improving upon it.
4. Jacob deGrom, Free Agent
Jacob deGrom is the ultimate wild card. When healthy, he’s one of the most unstoppable pitchers we’ve ever seen. Unfortunately, over the past two years, a healthy Jacob deGrom has been rare. The two time Cy Young award winner has appeared in just 26 starts over the past two years, but his stats are typical Jacob deGrom. A 1.90 ERA, 1.60 FIP, 0.633 WHIP and 248 Ks (14.3 K/9). That is incredible stuff. deGrom is a free agent, and potentially looking for a change of scenery, which I think we can all agree would be for the better (this may or may not be because I’m a Phillies fan). If he is healthy, he’s easily the best pitcher in baseball and fantasy baseball. But if he’s not, he’s going to be rotting away on your bench. We’ll see where he’s going in drafts, and let’s hope he’s falling to a spot where the potential value is insane. If you are going to have to draft him early, you need make that risk analysis for yourself.
3. Justin Verlander, Free Agent
The ageless wonder known as Justin Verlander. Just as he improves as the innings go on, he’s gotten better as the years have gone by, comparable to a fine wine. The unanimous 2022 AL Cy Young award winner posted BY FAR the best ERA (1.75) of his career, in his age 39 season. After missing all of 2021 due to TOMMY JOHN SURGERY. It really isn’t being talked about enough how Verlander had one of the most impressive seasons a pitcher has ever had. In addition to leading the league in ERA, he, predictably, led the league in ERA+ (220) and WHIP (0.829). He also only walked 29 batters and struck out 185. I could talk on and on about how insanely good JV was this season, but I’ll just end it there. The only way you’re not taking him if given the opportunity in 2023 is if you think his age will catch up to him, but there is nothing indicating that it will.
2. Max Scherzer, New York Mets
Mad Max’s 2022 campaign was derailed thanks to a strained left oblique which put him on the IL in May, and then “left side fatigue” put him on the shelf again in September. You don’t need to be a doctor to know that was the same injury, considering your left oblique is located on the “left side” of your body. The crazy part is that despite this nagging injury, he was still pretty much Max Scherzer. He only pitched in 23 games (145.1 IP) while collecting 173 Ks and posting a 2.29 ERA. He’ll turn 39 (!!!) during this season, but aside from his injuries, he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Just like his teammate and fellow ace Jake deGrom, if he’s healthy, he’s easily a top 3 fantasy pitcher. If he’s not, you’ll some great games while he is, but you’ll be hurting without him. He might be worth the risk.
1. Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
I know, so bold of me to pick the number one starting pitcher in fantasy last year and unanimous NL Cy Young winner to repeat as the number one starter. Sandy had his breakout year this past season and I see the dominance continuing. He had a 2.28 ERA in a league leading 228.2 innings with 207 strikeouts. Do we see a pattern here? Zack Wheeler was number one in 2021 while leading the league in innings, as well. It’s the easy pick for me to put Alcantara number one, so that’s what I’ll do (for right now), but maybe the more important thing to look at is you might need to get yourself a workhorse. Sounds basic, but I’ll look into it more
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