Tuesday night, the Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent and former Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker to a 4-year, $72 million contract. Dave Dombrowski is not messing around. He knows the championship window is NOW and you have to be all in. He already made the huge move to sign star shortstop Trea Turner to a $300M deal, then he grabs Walker, and shortly after, pick up left-handed reliever Matt Strahm.
So, who is Taijuan Walker? Is this a good move? Should Phillies fans be happy? Lets find out.
Walker was drafted by the Mariners as a first round pick in 2010, going on to become one of their top prospects. He was highly touted as a prospect – I feel like we heard about him all the time. All the usual stuff, “future ace,” “great stuff,” “future number one.” These terms get thrown around like they’re nothing and the same was true back in Walker’s early days.
He showed some flashes with Seattle, never really panned out and was eventually traded to Arizona, for Jean Segura, ironically (all roads lead back to Jean). His 2017 season with the D-Backs may still be his best overall season of his career – 3.49 ERA, 135 ERA+.
He eventually goes back to Seattle, has a cup of coffee in Toronto, and then finds his way to Queens. Now, this is the stuff we really care about. In 2021 with the Mets, Walker made his first All-Star Game appearance. At the All-Star break, he had a 2.66 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and a .205 BAA in 94.2 IP. Then, the wheels fell off.
By now, you might’ve heard the criticism of him – he pitches great until the All-Star break, and then pitches terribly. In the second half of 2021, he had a win-loss record of 0-8, with a 7.13 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and allowed 63 hits in 64.1 IP. BUT, something I’d also like to point out is his first game off of the All-Star break was a game against the Pirates, where he only went a third of an inning and allowed 5 earned runs. You may not remember that game off of the top of your head, but watch this quick clip from it and I think it might ring a bell.
If you exclude that game from his stats, his ERA drops to a 6.47. Still terrible, but not as bad as that 7+.
In 2022, it was more of the same. A 2.55 ERA and a .223 BAA in 91.2 IP, over 16 starts in the first half. Then, post-All-Star break; 4.80 ERA, .262 BAA, and a 7-6 record.
This obviously isn’t a good thing, but I think it’s obvious to see why it happens. He pitched in 4 games in 2018-2019 due to an elbow injury back in ’18 that caused him to have Tommy John surgery. We saw him throw a total of 53.1 innings in the shortened 2020 season. Let’s be real here – 90-100 IP is pretty much his threshold.
I’m not too sure what the Phillies see in him and I’d love to know. Taking a look at some of his 2022 stats, he had a 3.49 ERA, 3.94 xERA, 111 ERA+, 7.6 K/9, .293 wOBA and .308 xwOBA. There are some promising stats in there; the ERA and ERA+ aren’t bad and the wOBA is actually in the ballpark of pitchers like Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt and Martin Perez.
He just doesn’t really strike guys out (32nd percentile in K% and 30th percentile Whiff %) and gets hit fairly hard (28th percentile in Exit Velocity and 26th percentile in Hard Hit %). He also has shown us the past two years that he can’t throw even a normal amount of innings.
Don’t get me wrong, as a Phillies fan, I think it’s a decent signing. I love that it shows Dave Dombrowski and John Middleton’s willingness to spend whatever money it takes to “get their bleeping trophy back.” And keep in mind with all of the stats, he’s the 4th best starting pitcher on this team. Only issue with that is he’s not being paid like a 4. I’m not sure what warrants the contract he’s been given, but if the money doesn’t matter to John Middleton, it shouldn’t matter to you. Good for Taijuan to get that bag. All we ask for out of him is some decent pitching. We just can’t see a second-half ERA of 7, but I’m sure Phillies’ pitching coach, Caleb Cotham, will work with him to make sure that doesn’t happen ever again.
As always, stats provided by baseball-reference.com and baseballsavant.com.
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